EXPERIMENTAL METHOD AND ANIMAL

Construction and Evaluation of Dry Matter Intake Prediction Model for Dry-Lot Feeding Mutton Sheep

  • YAN Juntong ,
  • ZHANG Jixian ,
  • LI Jinhui ,
  • YAN Hui ,
  • GUO Yunxia ,
  • DUAN Chunhui ,
  • LIU Yueqin ,
  • JI Shoukun ,
  • ZHANG Yingjie
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  • College of Animal Science and Technology, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071000, China

Received date: 2021-05-16

  Online published: 2021-12-16

Abstract

By establishing a dataset of dry matter intake (DMI) and its influencing factors in mutton sheep, this research aimed to construct and evaluate DMI prediction model, in order to improve the application of DMI prediction model in mutton sheep breeds in China. We searched databases in CNKI and Web of Science, and dataset of DMI and its influencing factors were constructed according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, then multiple regression methods were used to construct the DMI prediction model and the model were evaluated by comparing the predicted DMI and observed DMI, finally, variance decomposition methods were applied to analyze the influencing factors of DMI. The results showed as follows:a dataset including DMI and its 15 potential influencing factors was successfully constructed, in which seven indicators[metabolic body weight (MBW), relative maturity (RM), average daily gain (ADG) and dry matter (DM), metabolic energy (ME), acid detergent fiber (ADF) and calcium (Ca) content] of mutton sheep were observed significantly affect DMI of mutton sheep (P<0.05); the DMI prediction model for dry-lot mutton sheep was DMI=98.48×MBW-379.70×RM+1.55×ADG+6.04×DM+26.38×ME+6.42×ADF+172.45×Ca-1271.67 (R2=0.90, P<0.05), mean bias (MB) was 0.11 g/d, and root of mean square prediction error (RMSPE) was 7.59%, which was higher in prediction accuracy than that of CNCPS-S (2004), NRC (2007) and AFRC (1998) models; we also observed the model explained 89% of the variation in DMI of dry-lot mutton sheep, and 61% of which was explained by animal factors and 39% by diet factors, and MBW, ADG and Ca content were the main factors influencing DMI in dry-lot mutton sheep, and these three factors together explained 69% of the variation in DMI. In conclusion, the study investigate the factors affecting DMI of dry-lot mutton sheep, and obtain the DMI prediction model with high prediction accuracy, which can be used for DMI prediction of dry-lot mutton sheep in China.

Cite this article

YAN Juntong , ZHANG Jixian , LI Jinhui , YAN Hui , GUO Yunxia , DUAN Chunhui , LIU Yueqin , JI Shoukun , ZHANG Yingjie . Construction and Evaluation of Dry Matter Intake Prediction Model for Dry-Lot Feeding Mutton Sheep[J]. Chinese Journal of Animal Nutrition, 2021 , 33(12) : 7033 -7041 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-267x.2021.12.043

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